Stock market crash explained by discussing Ray Dalio’s views over the past years. I also explain how to invest in stocks for the long term.
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https://sven-carlin-research-platform.teachable.com/p/stock-market-research-platform
Full-time independent stock market analyst and researcher!
STOCK MARKET RESEARCH PLATFORM (analysis, stocks to buy, model portfolio)
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Modern Value Investing book:
https://amzn.to/2lvfH3t
More at the Sven Carlin blog: https://svencarlin.com
I am also learning a lot by interning with my mentors: dr. Per Jenster and Peter Barklin at the Niche Masters fund.
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STOCK MARKET NEWS
1:03 Financial Engineering
3:08 Long term stock market
4:05 economy
6:09 Stocks and the real expected return
7:17 Buybacks end
8:11 Corporate debt
8:41 Valuations
11:00 How to invest (Buffett like)
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This video is very misleading exploiting fear in the market. From a psychological stand point sellers are in control and this week was confirmation of a down trend. Also heavy selling volume supports the bear market developing. Staying on the sideline is the smartest play until we see some consolidation. This guys claims are absurd for 10 years. Only gets attention when selling happens
You are as good as Ray Dalio!
Doesnt berkshire hold euros as well?
History does not support Ray’s prediction of 2250 by 2028. Specifically, during the great depression, the market was back to 1929 levels by 1936 (https://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/26/your-money/stocks-and-bonds/26stra.html) . Another way of saying the market has never taken 10 full years to recuperate. History is a much better predictor than extrapolations of earnings. But, who knows, maybe “this time is different”.
Bridgewater / Dalio
Approximately 50% emerging markets, 25% S&P500, 25% mix of gold, bonds & individual value stocks.
His strategy should pay off. Last 13 years emerging markets Dec 2005 to Dec 2018, have averaged only 4% a year.
Thanks Sven, I’m pretty happy to be heavy in cash.
Please remember that Dalio also said “If you’re holding cash, you’re going to feel pretty stupid” back in January. Cash is the best performing asset this year.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/23/ray-dalio-says-market-surge-may-be-ahead-if-youre-holding-cash-youre-going-to-feel-pretty-stupid.html
Thank you for hard work mate.
Thank you. Greetings from Brazil
Wrong
alot of gold miners stock is down hard as well. i bought some few days ago and they stands around 25% of my porfolio for now. is it time to buy now yet?
How much is debt really hurting the U.S.? Im very worried of post baby boomer economy. Housing is hurting us.
Sven, 10 years after the bear market crash we will have again a PE of higher than 15, I guess. So there could be a bit positive return on price + the dividend. But what is the alternative? Yes, buy equities cheaper than today…
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Nice video as always.
For those of you who aren’t a member of his platform yet… you are missing real value there! His research is so freaking extensive and exhaustive!
For me is it like, paying him for doing my homework with extra content!
And yes he has skin in the game!
If this is the big one then we lose it all. Hyperinflation and bail-ins will rob us of our wealth. Precious metals, ammo, guns, food and water.
All levereged debt. Tromp buble popped. This market was never real !
Sven, you and dalio save my portfolio
Sold all my high pe risky stocks 3 months ago
Save me a ton of hard earned money
Hvala ti
Thanks for the great info and charts
Makes it easy to understand.
Dobro veće Sven,
Thank you again for such an amazing and informative video. I have three companies that I believe strongly in for the longrun:
1. Aerowash (Already bought at ~1.5$)
2. Sensec Holding
3. Pat1 technology
If you feel like doing a quick analysis or do a video about them, please answer. I would like to know about your expertise.
Thank you in advance, Tarik
This is confusing. First you seem to agree with Dalio that there is 0% chance getting a 10+ year return, but then you say you should keep investing?
Is it Buffett or Dalio who is right? I guess the answer is no one knows. Meanwhile, the public invests trying to buy the dip like you say, but the market keeps going all the way down and they lose their jobs in the recession…. meaning they still stay poor.
I just hear more Warren Buffet,
what does he represent? Is there an investor waiting for 20 years to profit? He can also save every company he buys. And he does not even need to wait for profits. He will not survive. Still, I wish Warren to reinvest with 120 years of age.
A Christmas crash, very interesting!
This year everything is in the negative territory. That is worse than 2008. Nothing worked. It’s an everything negative year, that maybe never happened before ??
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Sven, do you have a good method of screening for stocks with good dividends that will be safe in the next recession? Seems that often times a good dividend is just an indicator of a company in trouble and a sharp drop in the dividend and share price follow once a recession hits.
Sven, be careful with pharma stocks in the EU or GB (Dechra, etc.). If the Brexit fails next March, there could be a turbulent time for these companies!
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There is one train that has a full tank………Uranium!!!
No choice but to buy the dip at this point, stick to the plan and accumulate quality stocks
Sven, i have to tell you that your channel is the most boring channel about investing its so boring that i have to bought your book, and thats it investing is boring thats why your channel is the best stock investing channel on youtube. I have to thank you for your hard work cause researching is very hard. So big Thanks
Ray Dalio=Genius. Financial wizard there is no doubt about it. Great video 🙂
So shall I still dollar cost average on index funds or wait til the market goes down more?
Starting to believe me! 12500 – 14500 Dow at its best. Dow 6500 – 9500 worst case. World does not give a shit about any federal Reserve…Stock Markets have turned into fake ugly Ponzi Schemes….People will lose 200% if they hang on to these worthless pieces of paper called stocks…some will win most will lose.
it is true it will be a bad crash and thease low rates are a cancer to the economy , it created tons of debt and didn’t help the middle class at all !
true there will be lots of divergence among equities but mostly fall uniformly should a recession occur quite similar to 08 and 09 and its also true on bull markets.. so ill stick to my total stock market index, snp 500, berkshire hathaway and my apple stock.. and this i will never go wrong and will beat most, if not all, hedge funds return especially when buying on dips.. one of the reasons why i love the stock market more than anyone else in my life because i will make money when it goes up especially when it goes down.. i love it!!!
Sven what do you think about European real estate ? I’m about to pull the trigger on a house in Ireland with a 7% cash on cash return.
howdy Svenny
what is your opinion of peter schiffer
and harry dent?
cheers
Can you please make a video on the EUR/USD?! What do you expect in 5 years interval. Parity or 1,3-1,4 ?! That’s a tough question right? Thinking about USA’s twin deficit and on the other side South Europe and France debt. Not to mention that Europe is still at 0% interest rate.
S&P forward P/E 14.2
Fun question – if you have to invest $100k today for 2019 – do you buy bonds or US stocks?
So basically the FED was “investing” (balance sheet increase) 4 Trillion into the market and reached 270% returns. That’s around 67 cents on the dollar,ROIC. LOL
at 18500 DOW I will go long outside the gold market.
and now compare bitcoin market over last 10 years it is 10000% return $ is worthless for the future we can not calculate returns in $ anymore.
pretty misleading video… you can’t cherry pick your dates and extrapolate data from it. If you take the period 2000-2018 the real returns of the S&P 500 is only 1.5% which is absolutely pathetic mostly due to a disaster decade 2000-2010. Historically this bull market has actually returned sub par returns compared to other ones even though it has been the longest one. We may have a brief pullback but I think we still have a good bit of upside left.
I wonder how much lower will the markets go. It looks like this is just the beginning. The house of cards built over the last 10 years is crumbling.
Here is the time to begin invest when down, these is time to buy! The full moon es good to buy cheap